Health, 2014

Disease burdens differ between developed and developing countries. Malnutrition and infectious diseases are dominant in the developing world, while obesity and non-infectious diseases predominate in the developed world.

Above: Various human health risks in relation to development and economic growth. Traditional and modern risks arise from different behaviours and have different consequences. Source: EEA 2010 and WHO 2009.

9-10 billion obese people on excessive western diets by 2050 is not only a nightmare, it is unobtainable

Changing to a healthy diet, reducing excessive calories and meat consumption, has major positive implications not only for health but for food production trends, and further knock-on effects from that that make it easier to live within planetary limits. In any case 9-10 billion obese people on excessive western diets by 2050 is not only a nightmare, it is unobtainable: according to OECD’s Bioeconomy to 2030.. The projected increase in wheat production alone by 2030 assumes an additional 13% of land, yet gives only small global per capita increases in yield. This will not allow many to increase their consumption to current ‘western’ levels, nor has anyone explained where the land will come from.

personal monitoring through wearable apps … may drive a disruptive change towards preventive healthcare

The wider necessary change to preventative health care is another paradigm shift. But what we also learn from Bioeconomy to 2030 is that preventative healthcare does not sit well within current healthcare business models (which is to treat illness once they occur). Left to market forces, the most profitable direction of healthcare innovation can be for products for wealthy people, to treat readily avoidable illnesses. The existing health care industry may not innovate in preventative health care: it is a business risk that — as they see it — does not draw upon their proprietary knowledge and produces little that is patentable. However, the advent of cheap personal monitoring through wearable apps and the healthy ‘addiction’ to checking and improving health status and, less obviously, the huge databases that this will create, may drive a disruptive change towards preventive healthcare regardless of the current healthcare sector’s interests. It offers potential for new entrants, and sharply reduced healthcare costs overall—assuming that we live long and have a good quick death.

Source: Trends to bend, modus vivendi, 2014, MMG